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This essay is a long format economics research piece, our latest edition to TGL.
Research Question: What market structure best characterises the Over the Top (OTT) audio streaming industry, in India, in 2020-21?
Introduction
10 years ago, it would be difficult to believe that millions of songs, podcasts and audiobooks could be accessed from our smartphones. Today, in India, music streaming is a crucial part of the average consumer’s online activity (Nielsen Holdings Inc., 2018).
In the first 6 months of 2020, the number of customers in the Indian audio streaming market increased by 40%(Gurbaxani, 2020). In the past 5 years, this industry has grown by 78.2% (Rampal, 2021).
Yet, prices appear to be relatively stable (Pendlebury, 2022). There are a lot of listed audio streaming services, but few firms are very popular(Singh, 2021).Hence, I grew curious about the market structure of this industry and how it operates. My curiosity was piqued by a newspaper article indicating that just a few firms catered to a majority of the market (Laghate, 2020).As a music enthusiast and published artist who has been involved with music for over a decade, investigating the market structure would help me gain a deeper understanding of this industry, while serving as an informative text.
The essay is a macroeconomics investigation regarding market structure and competition. It aims to determine the market structure of OTT audio streaming industry in India, in 2020-21. This study’s arguments will arise from four features of markets: size and number of firms; non-price competition, barriers to entry and price competition. A qualitative and quantitative analysis based on primary and secondary data is presented. The essay concludes with a determined structure, a description of its broad implications and a note on limitations.
In this market of over 200 million consumers, the implications of market structures, such as pricing, product development and product differentiation are very significant (Mehta, 2020). Opportunities for firms who recognise the potential for development could arise, especially if demand continues to accelerate, as it has for the past 5 years. With increasing demandand potential for profit, this market must could witness abuses of market power. This study aims to provide relevant insights on this matter, providing it with contemporary industrial application.
Existing literature and media reports either include F.M. radio stations, observe a broad international market or focus on one specific firm (AudienceNet et al., 2019, Banor et al., 2019, Deloitte, 2019). They do not investigate the market structure of the OTT audio streaming industry in isolation. My research aims to cover this gap.
Research Question:
What market structure best characterises the Over the Top (OTT) audio streaming industry, in India, in 2020-21
Hypotheses
It is hypothesised that the market has relatively low levels of competition, hence, it might be best described by an oligopolistic or monopolistically competitive structure. As a few firms have most of the market share, it is not perfectly competitive or an absolute monopoly.
The hypothesis originates from my personal experience of using these services for publishing and consuming content and general newspaper articles I have read in 2021. I have personally observed that a few big, and usually international firms, run elaborate advertisement campaigns on social media, billboards and television regarding the unique features they offer. Furthermore, the prices of the products from the most popular firms are similar and significant price hikes are seldom observed. The hypothesis is also supported by the high costs of music licensing I have personally observed, which would make it difficult for small firms to enter the market.
Methodology
To analyse the size and number of firms, data is obtained from 2 secondary sources: Kantar, a data-analytics firm and Statista, a firm specialising in market and consumer data. The credibility of these reports is derived from their significant geographical spread (9 major cities, nation-wide), significant sample size (over 9000 people) and their renowned and trusted publishing firms. The quantitative data from these industry studies is used to determine mathematically the N-firm concentration ratios and Herfindahl-Hirschman index (H.H.I.).
These metrics are used to analyse the market structure quantitatively and with depth, accounting for both the number of firms and their market shares (Espinola-Arredondo & Muñoz-Garcia, 2020). This enables the essay to accurately describe competitiveness and market structure, removing the need for further quantitative analysis here. Despite Kantar’s study focussing primarily on smartphone users, this study obtains data from it as its report is consistent with the data from the study by Statista, which has a broader sample and technological spread. Alternatives to this data were unidentifiable: a thorough search online yielded no other reports, for the chosen time period, industry and geographical range.
A primary survey was executed to compare the nation-wide trends from these reports to data from citizens in my city, taking into factors such as age-group and linguistics. Data from this survey is not used to analyse the size and number of firms, as its sample size is far too small. It is employed to verify the generalisations made by nationwide reports.
To analyse product homogeneity and non-price competition, this essay investigates industry specific features: exclusive content, personalized playlists, high quality audio and integration with devices. This essay acknowledges that there may be other minor competitive features, but as these are the majority, they can be used to determine, with significant accuracy, the competitiveness and market structure. Since this is not mathematical data, the significant presence or absence of various types of non-price competition is itself used to answer the research question.
Furthermore, these features and the competition they create vary for paid and free consumers in this market. Hence these categories are analysed separately. This essay sources this data from the public websites of the various firms as well as news reports of the industry. This enables the study to use the latest and highly error-free data. Alternatives to this method were not deemed appropriate as first-hand data from the firms and leading news agencies is credible and informative.
To analyse price competition, this essay analyses the prices of one-month subscription plans. This data is obtained directly from the public websites of the firms, ensuring credibility. Since this is numerical data, a statistical analysis is provided, by determining the coefficients of variation. This enables the essay to describe trends, deviations and patterns in pricing strategies, providing evidence of competition (or a lack thereof) and market structure. Alternative methods could include considering the 12-month subscription and discounting pattern and alternate tools of statistical analysis. This essay has not considered the 12or 3-month subscription data to ensure a fair test, as the majority of the firms do not offer this or offer it consistently. Other statistical tools are not used as their application adds little to no marginal value.
To analyse the barriers to entry in the industry, this essay will investigate legal barriers and economies of scale. Secondary data from news reports and interviews by firm officials are used to qualitatively determine the presence and significance of barriers to entry. Product differentiation as a barrier and pricing barriers have been addressed previously. By analysing data from the firms’ officials, this study obtains reliable and relevant data. Many legal disputes are settled outside the public domain of courtrooms, and hence cannot be accessed.
Quantitative data regarding economies of scale and firm costs remain undisclosed, and hence, inaccessible. An alternative could be to obtain primary data directly from managers of the firms, which did not work out for this study.
Economic Theory and Analysis
1) Size and number of Firms
A. Secondary Data
As of 2020, the firms in OTT music streaming industry in India are shown in Table 1.1. The exactly identical data was observed in another study, published nearly a year later, for the same time period (Statista Research Department, 2021).
N-firm concentration ratio
The n-firm concentration ratio can be calculated using the function below (Papatheodorou, 2016, Kvålseth, 2018).
Concentration ratios have been calculated, presented in Table 2. The calculations can be found in Appendix 1.
As the data indicates, the 2 market leaders control 54% of the market. These firms exercise significant market power. Together, the top 4 and 5 firms control large parts of the market,leaving just 6% of the market share to many smaller firms.
An absolute oligopoly is when all goods are produced by five or fewer firms, while a partial oligopoly is where 50% of the market is satisfied by four or fewer firms (Ukav, 2017). Other scholars, journals and books define an Oligopoly to exist when the 4-firm concentration ratio exceeds 60%or 40% (Kenton, 2020, Economics Online, 2020, Law, 2009).
Despite the multiple academic definitions of an oligopoly vis-à-vis concentration ratios, it is evident that a market where the 3-firm concentration exceeds 60% can be described as an oligopoly.
Herfindahl-Hirschman index
The Herfindahl-Hirschman index can be calculated using the function below (Ukav, 2017).
Usually, this index is measured for the top 50 firms. Since this data is not entirely available, we assume the multiple minor firms which together have a market share of 6% to be a single firm. Since the market share of these firms is limited to 6%, the error in the HHI cannot exceed 2%, rendering the result fairly accurate.
The HHI yields a value of 2062. The calculation can be referred to in Appendix 1. HHI values exceeding 1800 generally represent a highly concentrated market with low competition (U.S. Department of Justice & Federal Trade Commission, 2015). However, the European Commission identifies high concentration for values exceeding 2000 (Cocioc, 2014).
B.Primary Data (Survey of common consumers) and Analysis
Primary data was obtained through a survey of the general public from my city. 61 people were surveyed regarding their preferred firm, firms they are aware of and the cost of their subscription. This data was used to estimate the numbers of firms within the sample and their market share. All participants of the survey had used multiple services. This was done to validate claims from the secondary data, which was measured nationwide. However, the primary data faces limitations regarding the small sample size and unrepresentative population, who were all of similar linguistics, age and income groups.
70.5% of those surveyed used Spotify and only 16.4% used Gaana. These figures deviate significantly from the secondary data. This deviation could be explained by the age group and linguistics of the population. 59% of the survey participants were 15 to 24 years old and 90% of the participants consumed English music. Thus, the sample data was not a fair representation of the Indian population. The secondary data from Kantar also shows that within the age group of 18 to 24-year-old citizens, the majority use Spotify the most.
2) Product Homogeneity and Non-Price Competition
In markets with nearly perfect competition, consumers observe a homogenous product. In monopolistically competitive or oligopolistic markets, the consumers’ demand for a differentiated product is met (Tragakes, 2020).
The CEO of Times Internet (parent company of Gaana) stated that Gaana’s strategies for the coming years revolve around developments in the podcast sector (Lidhoo, 2021). This attempts to differentiate Gaana from Audio OTT firms that do not currently provide podcast access. Vinodh Bhat, the president of JioSaavn also claims that their strategies rely on differentiating themselves from competing firms via product personalization and “mass premium” features.
The CEO of Wynk Music stated to a newspaper that the way forward for the OTT music streaming industry in India was going to witness intense battles between rival firms fought closely on the bases of product differentiation (Lidhoo, 2021). To the same newspaper, a vice president of Spotify claimed that Spotify knew that they needed to provide something differentiated and really tailored to the Indian market to “win”.
Evidently, this market is rich with non-price competition and product differentiation. For the common core product, audio streaming, firms attempt to gain a qualitative competitive edge. Spotify, an internationally established firm, provides over 10 personalized playlists, more than others firms, while Gaana, the oldest India firm in the industry, offers content in 21 languages. These firms seem to have built unique core audiences (Mehta & Dawane, 2020).
For free subscriptions, firms differentiate themselves by offering access to exclusive content, personalized playlists, podcasts and product bundling (Sletten, 2021, Osazuwa, 2020). In India, a country with 22 official languages, regional and linguistically varied content is a strong ground for competition(Bhattacharya, 2019).
This study analyses free and paid products on these grounds, to determine the presence of, and qualitatively estimate the level of non-price competition. This data has been sourced from the websites of these firms
Data for each of these categories was not available from a single source. Most of this data is sourced from the official websites of firms, while a small portion is sourced from news reports.
The highlighted cells indicate product differentiation. All firms seek to compete to capture non-paying users. Most firms attempt to provide unique features, leading to stronger product differentiation for users.
In the paid industry, non-price competition occurs with different features. All paid services include options to download virtually unlimited songs and stream content online without advertisements. Here, the competition lies in high audio quality, simultaneous device access, free-trial duration, inter-device integration and unique features such as access to lyrics, and Apple Music’s Lossless Audio and Spotify’s Blend playlists.
Source: (Pujari, 2019;Maranan, 2021;Apple Inc., 2020;Gaana, 2020;Jio Saavn, 2020;Wynk, 2020;YouTube, 2020;Spotify, 2020)
Higher the audio data rate, higher the quality of the audio provided.
Though Apple Music and Amazon Prime Music do not currently control a large market share in India yet, they have been analysed here as they are popular paid services in many countries, and have entered the Indian market only recently. Moreover, from the table, we can infer that the new firms are attempting to gain market share by differentiating their product.
From Table 3, the variety of competition in evident. Apple Music and Amazon Prime Music compete by offering loss-less or spatial high-quality audio. Spotify’s competition is seen in its unique playlist features. Gaana and JioSaavn could be at a relative disadvantage due to their lacking free-trial provisions.
For free and paid subscriptions, firms attempt to attract customers with specialized features. Gaana and JioSaavn’s dominating market shares (exceeding 50% together,) could be corelated with their content being offered in the most regional languages, thereby rendering their product to be significantly differentiated.
As this industry does not have homogenous products, Cournot competition is not observed here.
3) Barriers to Entry
Barriers to entry are factors that prevent or deter new firms from entering a market, even when incumbent firms earn profits (OECD, 2002). These barriers may retard or nullify the market’s mechanism for checking market power, which is the attraction and arrival of new competitors (OECD, 2006). Instances of high market concentration, such as monopolies and oligopolies usually have absolute or high barriers to entry, while more competitive markets have lower or absent barriers (Tragakes, 2020).
Numerically, barriers to entry can be measured using the advertising-sales ratio or cost-disadvantage ratio (Chappell et al., 1983). However, since profit and cost data for these firms, in India, for 2020 alone is not publicly available, this study takes a qualitative approach, largely based on interviews of industry officials and news reports. This study investigates Legal Barriers and economies of scale.
Legal barriers are often witnessed in this industry. Warner Music and Saregama Music pursued legal action against Spotify regarding licensing(Joshi, 2019). Tips Industries Ltd. v Wynk Music Ltd. & Others and Myspace Inc. v Super Cassettes Industries Ltd. depicted similar legal hurdles (Dalmia, 2020). These cases indicate barriers faced by new firms in acquiring music licensing rights.
In an interview, Spotify’s M.D. for India stated that a barrier they faced was market research and creating a localized product (Dey, 2019). Since India is a huge market (exceeding 200,000,000 listeners), economies of scale area barrier(Mehta, 2020). We infer that new firms not enjoying economies of scale may find it difficult to conduct expensive market research and product development.
Moreover, India, a country with over 22 languages,has a very diverse consumer base(Hartley, 2021). Hence, running advertisement campaigns to attract this diverse population may be challenging and expensive. Market diversity may be a barrier here.
Cost related, legal and diversity barriers are present in this market.
4) Price Competition and Price Rigidity
This section only applies to paid OTT audio streaming services.
Pricing is probably the most basic strategy that firms must decide on, as demand for their product is dependent on it (Cabral, 2000). Price competition occurs when firms selling a similar product compete by lowering prices. Markets with monopolistic competition exhibit price-competition, oligopolies usually do not (Tragakes, 2020).
This data has been sourced fromthe websites of these firms (Gaana, 2020, Jio Saavn, 2020, Spotify, 2020, Wynk, 2020, YouTube, 2020, Apple Inc., 2020, Amazon, 2020)
Only few firms offer special discounts (student or family plans) and annual plans at different prices. Hence, the standard 1-month price of these services is considered.
To determine the similarity in prices, and hence the extent of price competition, this study the statistical tool the Coefficient of variation.
If 𝐶𝑉 < 1, values in the dataset are ‘hardly’ spread out (Hayes, 2019; Zady, 1999)
It is calculated to equal0.127 (Appendix 1). Hence, prices in this market are hardly spread out. Prices of 4 firms (with nearly 70% market share) are exactly identical (INR 99) (refer Table 4).We infer that there is little to no price competition in the market.
A type of tacit collusion is price leadership, where a dominant firm sets a price followed exactly or very closely by competing firms such that firms compete freely on a non-price basis (Tragakes, 2017). Here, three non-dominant firms follow the exact price of the most dominant firm, Gaana. This could indicate price leadership and tacit collusion, led by Gaana. The deviation of YouTube Music Premium fromthe price leader’s strategy can be attributed to this service being heterogenic to the dominant firm, as unlike them, it also streams music videos. Amazon Prime Music’s similar deviation could be attributed to its bundled movie-streaming service.
Price leadership and tacit collusion are indicators that the market is oligopolistic and hence not very competitive. The stable prices suggest a kinked demand model.
The kinked demand (Graph 1) curve explains price rigidities of oligopolistic firms that do not collude, through strategic pricing. When a firm increases price, demand is elastic (curve section ‘a’), and total revenue decreases. This is because other firms won’t increase prices, to gain market share. When a firm decreases price, demand is inelastic (curve section ‘b’), as all firms reduces their price, to protect their market shares. Since firms only lose revenue by changing price, their best interest lies in always maintaining a rigid price (‘Z’).
From 2019 to 2021, the firms experienced an increasing user-base. Gaana welcomed over 100 million users (Times of India, 2020; Dredge, 2020). 3 firms have been following the price leader and have not changed prices in this period. Apple Music changed their price, to follow the price leader. Only 1 firm hasincreased their price, by a mere 8%. This is despite an inflation rate of 4.76% in 2019 and 6.2% in 2020 (O’Neill, 2021). Clearly, we see price rigidity in the market, which we attribute to a kinked demand curve (Tragakes, 2017).
Conclusion
Responding to the research question, “what market structure best characterises the O.T.T.audio streaming industry, in India, in 2020-21?”, it is concluded that market is best characterized by an oligopoly. The oligopoly exhibits product differentiation, through the variety of content offered and product personalization. This market has low levels of competition. This affirms the research hypothesis.
This conclusion strongly arises from qualitative and quantitative analysis from the four methods employed.
From the size and number of firms, despite non-universal standards for the interpretation of H.H.I. and the M-firm concentration ratios, all calculated values consistently and strongly support the conclusion. Regarding price competition, the coefficient of variation for price indicates the same result. These claims are supported by qualitative data. High product differentiation and non-price competition are proven in the market. Significant barriers to entry and exit, especially legal and scale barriers, were also detected. The presence of these features vehemently indicates an Oligopoly.
The implications of the market’s low-competition and oligopolistic behaviour, in a country where the market is rapidly growing, are varied. In the short term, consumers benefit from product differentiation. In the long run, consumers benefit from relative price stability.
Producers, due to their large market shares, benefit from economies of scale. Producers also benefit from the opportunity to create abnormal profits. While firms, through these profits, earn the ability to invest in product development, the probability of the same remains low, due to low competition. Musical artists are also seen as consumers of the distribution service provided by these firms. As such, they shall suffer due to the firms’ abnormal profit as they would receive lower and less competitive royalties.
Academic literature corresponding to this study was not found, for India. However, the results of this study are synchronous to research from the University of Montana, which studied industry statistics, revenue and price analyses and barriers to entry, showing that internationally, there is a low threat of new entrants into the market (Sletten, 2021). From this, we can infer high costs to entry and exit as well as oligopolistic behaviour.
Evaluation
Strengths
This study could execute strong quantitative analysis for the size and number of firms and price competition. The use of mathematics has improved the level of economic analysis possible. Qualitative data is well sourced, relevant and successfully supports the arguments made.
Limitations due to dataavailability and accuracy
Barriers to entry could have been determined further with primary input from firm representatives or government officials in competition regulation authorities. Further, legal barriers are often settled outside courts, preventing their public release. This study could not analyse such barriers.
Methodological Limitations
Secondary data used to analyse the size and number of firms relies heavily on 2 studies.A greater volume and variation of data would have allowed evenmore accurate analysis.
The primary data could be systematically biased, as over 50% of the respondents were of a single age group and most respondents were from a similar income bracket. However, this bias is accounted for and its data is restricted to qualitative analysis.
Product homogeneity could have been better analysed if consumer perception of product differentiation could also have been studied. While the primary data attempts to obtain this data, it is quite limited by its sample size and spread. More features and a quantitative analysis, such as integration with Internet of Things networks and Artificial Intelligence systems could have been analysed to determine differentiation, but have not, due to constraints of the length for this essay.
Numerical analysis of price competition has not accounted for pricing strategies set with qualitatively different features, varying across all firms, such as seasonal discounts, long-term pricing or corporate offers. This study can be expanded by comparing the unique pricing plans of each firm, accounting for all options.
Further Research
This investigation can be expanded upon by viewing different countries, attempting a quantitative analysis for all market features, investigating potential collusion within firms and obtaining a greater sample of primary data, from the general public and firm representatives.
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